🌱 Assumptions
| Parameter | Value / Note |
|---|---|
| Plantation Size | 1 hectare |
| Planting Density | 1,000 trees (3m x 3m spacing) |
| Plantlet Type | Agaris™ Elite Field-Ready Polybag |
| Plantlet Cost | ₱950 per unit |
| Land Preparation | ₱200,000/ha (clearing, plowing, soil prep) |
| Fertilizers & Agrochemicals | ₱100,000/ha/year |
| Labor (planting, maintenance) | ₱150,000/ha/year |
| Irrigation Setup | ₱50,000/ha (if needed) |
| Maintenance Period | First 3 years before resin induction |
| Survival Rate | 90% (assumed after field planting) |
| Resin Induction Start | Year 4 |
| Yield per tree | 0.5–1 kg agarwood chips per tree by Year 10 |
| Agarwood Chip Price | ₱25,000/kg (market reference for export-grade) |
📊 Capital Investment (Establishment Costs)
| Item | Unit / Qty | Unit Cost | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Field-Ready Plantlets | 1,000 pcs | ₱950 | ₱950,000 |
| Land Preparation | 1 ha | ₱200,000 | ₱200,000 |
| Fertilizers & Agrochemicals (3 yrs) | 3 yrs | ₱100,000/yr | ₱300,000 |
| Labor (3 yrs) | 3 yrs | ₱150,000/yr | ₱450,000 |
| Irrigation | 1 ha | ₱50,000 | ₱50,000 |
| Total Establishment Cost / ha | ₱1,950,000 |
Includes planting, early maintenance, and setup.
📊 Projected Yield & Revenue (Per Hectare)
| Year | Trees Survived | Avg Chips / Tree (kg) | Total Chips (kg) | Revenue (₱25,000/kg) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 900 | 0.05 | 45 | 1,125,000 |
| 5 | 900 | 0.10 | 90 | 2,250,000 |
| 6 | 900 | 0.15 | 135 | 3,375,000 |
| 7 | 900 | 0.20 | 180 | 4,500,000 |
| 8 | 900 | 0.25 | 225 | 5,625,000 |
| 9 | 900 | 0.35 | 315 | 7,875,000 |
| 10 | 900 | 0.50 | 450 | 11,250,000 |
Yield assumes gradual resin accumulation per tree. Higher-quality inoculation may increase resin per tree.
📊 Cumulative Revenue vs Investment
| Metric | Amount (₱) |
|---|---|
| Total Investment (Establishment + 3 yrs maintenance) | 1,950,000 |
| Total Revenue (Year 4–10) | 35,250,000 |
| Net Revenue | 33,300,000 |
| ROI | 17.1x over 10 years |
| Break-even Point | Year 4–5 |
Conservative estimate; actual figures vary with resin quality and market demand.
📈 Key Observations
- High ROI Potential: Agarwood plantations using Agaris™ Elite clones can recover initial investment by Year 4–5.
- Uniform Growth: Clonal plantlets ensure predictable yield per hectare.
- Scalability: Model scales linearly for 5–10 ha estates.
- Risk Mitigation: Survival rate, resin induction success, and market price are the main variables.
- Premium Export Value: Fully traceable Elite plantlets support high-grade export pricing.
💡 Optional Enhancements
- Agroforestry integration (sandalwood, nutmeg, Manila elemi) can diversify revenue streams.
- Digital traceability via QR codes can improve buyer confidence and market price.
- Improved resin induction techniques may increase yield per tree to 0.7–1.0 kg/tree by Year 10.
If you want, I can now prepare:
- 🖼 Visual 1-Hectare Layout with Plantlet Distribution & Timeline
- 📊 Multi-Hectare Investment Projection (5–20 ha estates)
- 📈 Full 10-Year Financial Model including Cashflow & IRR
Do you want me to prepare the visual plantation layout next?