10-Year Financial Simulation

Here’s a detailed  for a 1-hectare Agaris™ Elite plantation of Aquilaria malaccensis. This model combines investment, maintenance costs, yield projections, and revenue, providing a clear view of long-term ROI for investors. All amounts are in PHP.


🌱 Assumptions

ParameterValue
Plantation Size1 hectare
Planting Density1,000 trees (3m x 3m)
Plantlet TypeAgaris™ Elite Field-Ready Polybag
Plantlet Cost₱950/plantlet
Land Preparation₱200,000/ha
Fertilizers & Agrochemicals₱100,000/yr
Labor₱150,000/yr
Irrigation Setup₱50,000/ha (Year 1)
Survival Rate90%
Maintenance PeriodYears 1–3
Resin Induction StartYear 4
Resin Yield per TreeGradual increase from 0.05 kg in Year 4 → 0.50 kg in Year 10
Agarwood Chip Price₱25,000/kg (export-grade)

📊 Annual Cashflow Projection

YearCosts (₱)Trees SurvivedAvg Chips/Tree (kg)Revenue (₱)Net Cashflow (₱)Cumulative Cashflow (₱)
11,950,00090000-1,950,000-1,950,000
2250,00090000-250,000-2,200,000
3250,00090000-250,000-2,450,000
4250,0009000.051,125,000875,000-1,575,000
5250,0009000.102,250,0002,000,000425,000
6250,0009000.153,375,0003,125,0003,550,000
7250,0009000.204,500,0004,250,0007,800,000
8250,0009000.255,625,0005,375,00013,175,000
9250,0009000.357,875,0007,625,00020,800,000
10250,0009000.5011,250,00011,000,00031,800,000

Notes:

  • Maintenance costs after Year 1 include fertilization, labor, and minimal management.
  • Resin induction begins Year 4; yields increase annually as trees mature.
  • Conservative resin yield used; optimized inoculation can increase revenue.

📈 Key Financial Metrics

MetricValue
Total Investment (Years 1–3)₱2,450,000
Total Revenue (Years 4–10)₱35,250,000
Net Profit (Revenue – Investment)₱32,800,000
ROI13.4x over 10 years
Break-even PointYear 5
Average Annual Cashflow₱3,180,000

🔑 Observations & Insights

  1. Early-stage Investment: Most capital is spent during Years 1–3 for planting and maintenance.
  2. High Long-Term ROI: Investor-grade Agaris™ Elite clones offer premium export returns.
  3. Resin Accumulation: Revenue grows exponentially after Year 6 as resin quantity and quality mature.
  4. Scalability: Model scales linearly; a 5-hectare estate multiplies profits ~5x.
  5. Risk Mitigation: High survival rate, traceability, and uniform clones reduce variability.

💡 Optional Enhancements

  • Agroforestry Integration: Adding sandalwood, nutmeg, or ylang-ylang increases total revenue streams.
  • Improved Resin Induction: Advanced biological inoculants can boost per-tree yield by 20–40%.
  • Export Optimization: Direct export contracts or CITES-compliant buyers may increase chip prices to ₱30,000–₱35,000/kg.

I can also create next:

  • 🖼 Graphical 10-Year Cashflow & ROI Chart (visual summary for investors)
  • 📊 Multi-Hectare Scenario (5–20 ha) with Sensitivity Analysis
  • 📄 Investor-Ready Financial Deck Slide

Do you want me to make the graphical 10-year cashflow chart next?