Here’s a detailed for a 1-hectare Agaris™ Elite plantation of Aquilaria malaccensis. This model combines investment, maintenance costs, yield projections, and revenue, providing a clear view of long-term ROI for investors. All amounts are in PHP.
🌱 Assumptions
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Plantation Size | 1 hectare |
| Planting Density | 1,000 trees (3m x 3m) |
| Plantlet Type | Agaris™ Elite Field-Ready Polybag |
| Plantlet Cost | ₱950/plantlet |
| Land Preparation | ₱200,000/ha |
| Fertilizers & Agrochemicals | ₱100,000/yr |
| Labor | ₱150,000/yr |
| Irrigation Setup | ₱50,000/ha (Year 1) |
| Survival Rate | 90% |
| Maintenance Period | Years 1–3 |
| Resin Induction Start | Year 4 |
| Resin Yield per Tree | Gradual increase from 0.05 kg in Year 4 → 0.50 kg in Year 10 |
| Agarwood Chip Price | ₱25,000/kg (export-grade) |
📊 Annual Cashflow Projection
| Year | Costs (₱) | Trees Survived | Avg Chips/Tree (kg) | Revenue (₱) | Net Cashflow (₱) | Cumulative Cashflow (₱) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1,950,000 | 900 | 0 | 0 | -1,950,000 | -1,950,000 |
| 2 | 250,000 | 900 | 0 | 0 | -250,000 | -2,200,000 |
| 3 | 250,000 | 900 | 0 | 0 | -250,000 | -2,450,000 |
| 4 | 250,000 | 900 | 0.05 | 1,125,000 | 875,000 | -1,575,000 |
| 5 | 250,000 | 900 | 0.10 | 2,250,000 | 2,000,000 | 425,000 |
| 6 | 250,000 | 900 | 0.15 | 3,375,000 | 3,125,000 | 3,550,000 |
| 7 | 250,000 | 900 | 0.20 | 4,500,000 | 4,250,000 | 7,800,000 |
| 8 | 250,000 | 900 | 0.25 | 5,625,000 | 5,375,000 | 13,175,000 |
| 9 | 250,000 | 900 | 0.35 | 7,875,000 | 7,625,000 | 20,800,000 |
| 10 | 250,000 | 900 | 0.50 | 11,250,000 | 11,000,000 | 31,800,000 |
Notes:
- Maintenance costs after Year 1 include fertilization, labor, and minimal management.
- Resin induction begins Year 4; yields increase annually as trees mature.
- Conservative resin yield used; optimized inoculation can increase revenue.
📈 Key Financial Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total Investment (Years 1–3) | ₱2,450,000 |
| Total Revenue (Years 4–10) | ₱35,250,000 |
| Net Profit (Revenue – Investment) | ₱32,800,000 |
| ROI | 13.4x over 10 years |
| Break-even Point | Year 5 |
| Average Annual Cashflow | ₱3,180,000 |
🔑 Observations & Insights
- Early-stage Investment: Most capital is spent during Years 1–3 for planting and maintenance.
- High Long-Term ROI: Investor-grade Agaris™ Elite clones offer premium export returns.
- Resin Accumulation: Revenue grows exponentially after Year 6 as resin quantity and quality mature.
- Scalability: Model scales linearly; a 5-hectare estate multiplies profits ~5x.
- Risk Mitigation: High survival rate, traceability, and uniform clones reduce variability.
💡 Optional Enhancements
- Agroforestry Integration: Adding sandalwood, nutmeg, or ylang-ylang increases total revenue streams.
- Improved Resin Induction: Advanced biological inoculants can boost per-tree yield by 20–40%.
- Export Optimization: Direct export contracts or CITES-compliant buyers may increase chip prices to ₱30,000–₱35,000/kg.
I can also create next:
- 🖼 Graphical 10-Year Cashflow & ROI Chart (visual summary for investors)
- 📊 Multi-Hectare Scenario (5–20 ha) with Sensitivity Analysis
- 📄 Investor-Ready Financial Deck Slide
Do you want me to make the graphical 10-year cashflow chart next?